Geneva Sugar Conference: Market challenges and sustainability focus
The 14th Geneva Sugar Conference took place on April 23rd and 24th, with the theme "Unlocking Sustainable Growth in the Sugar Market." Experts shared insights and views not only on the European market but also on global trends.
The first panel, featuring major European producers, put the low domestic prices in Europe in the spotlight. A combination of factors—namely, high stocks, good production in 2024-25, declining domestic consumption, and late-season exports—has led to a price level not seen in the past four years.
The depreciated price has effectively pushed exports at a high pace and reduced imports to their lowest level. Still, with producers’ margins being squeezed, the announcement of closure of three factories this season indicates that fewer beets will be processed in the next season.
The growers' panel highlighted the challenges farmers are currently facing. There is a significant increase in the cost of production, while sugar yields are either trending down or, at best, remaining unchanged over the past few years. Although not all producers have indicated beet prices for 2025, there is a consensus that acreage will decrease in the EU 27 and the UK. Most analysts and market participants estimate cuts between 5% and 8%, but countries like Austria and Croatia are expected to have larger cuts, while France, for example, is forecasted to cut by around 5%. The extent to which sugar output will drop will depend, of course, on the weather going forward. Thus far, European farmers have had a good start with early sowing, but attention must be paid to the recent dryness in certain regions.
Another challenge pointed out by growers and producers is the tight regulations in the EU. The bloc has restrictions and prohibitions on certain chemicals, such as neonics, and there is still a lack of efficient solutions. The need for more timely, simpler, and fairer regulations is clear. Stakeholders also call for consistency between environmental and trade rules.
The panel on sustainability showcased the achievements made thus far to lower emissions both on the farm and in factories. Nevertheless, there is still a long path to decarbonization, and significant investments are still needed. Since beet processing is very energy-intensive, the energy source has a significant impact on the equation to reach a net-zero goal, but agricultural emissions also play a substantial role. A French producer mentioned that they commercialise "low carbon sugar," but it remains a segregated market, as not every customer is willing to pay the higher cost; however, there is some demand for it.
European traders gathered to discuss the recent dynamic shift in the sugar trade, with the EU turning into a net exporter for the 2024-25 season. The large volumes of exports seen thus far are not expected to continue into the second half of 2025 and the 2025-26 season, when a more balanced market is anticipated by many. Still, the balance of the domestic market and the recovery of European sugar prices might take more than one season. If production drops year-on-year, as forecasted, the domestic price could increase, but there are still many unknowns to unfold in the coming months.
New consumption trends were also covered, with the hot topic being the potential impact of weight loss drugs on the future of sugar consumption. However, participants pointed out that the use of these drugs is still limited to a few developed countries, as they are costly, and the future impact may continue to be limited due to possible unknown side effects. The fact remains that consumption will continue to grow worldwide due to population growth, mainly in Africa and Asia.
Regarding the world market, volatility is expected by many participants, with current tariff changes in the US and macroeconomic instability as the main drivers. The global sugar trade panel shed light on major exporters' projections, with a consensus forecasting a high sugar mix in CS Brazil, along with some recovery in Indian sugar production for 2025-26. Despite the forecast of high production for major exporters, some countries are facing tight stocks, which could support NY#11 prices moving forward. Concerning whites, a trade house mentioned a tight trade flow ahead, which could explain the recent increase in the white premium.
Ukrainian sugar representatives shared that, despite the logistical challenges they have faced in exporting to the world market, solutions have been found, and the volumes exported were close to 750,000 mt in 2024. However, for 2025-26, production is expected to be lower due to a reduction in planted area of around 15%. Additionally, the decision regarding the trade agreement with the EU, set to take effect after the current quota of around 109,000 mt expires in June, will also influence Ukrainian producers.
The conference covered the current issues faced by market participants, highlighting the need for continued dialogue between growers, producers, and regulators to achieve a more sustainable, resilient, and competitive European sugar market.
